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RBI & how its policies can start to affect the market
Disclaimer: This DD is to help start forming a market view as per RBI announcements. Also a gentle reminder that fundamentals play out over a longer time frame than intraday. The authors take no responsiblity for your yolos. With contributions by Asli Bakchodi, Bran OP & dragononweed! What is the RBI? RBI is the central bank of India. They are one of the key players who affect India’s economic trajectory. They control currency supply, banking rules and more. This means that it is not a bank in which retailers or corporates can open an account with. Instead they are a bank for bankers and the Government of India. Their functions can be broadly classified into 6. · Monetary authority · Financial supervisor for financial system · Issuer of currency · Manages Foreign exchange · Bankers bank · Banker to the government This DD will take a look at each of these functions. It will be followed by a list of rates the RBI sets, and how changes in them can affect the market. 1.Monetary Authority One of RBI’s functions is to achieve the goal of “Price Stability” in the economy. This essentially means achieving an inflation rate that is within a desired limit. A monetary policy committee (MPC) decides on the desired inflation rate and its limits through majority vote of its 6 members, in consultation with the GoI. The current inflation target for RBI is as follows Consumer Price Inflation (CPI): 4% Upper Limit: 6% Lower Limit: 2% An increase in CPI means less purchasing power. Generally speaking, if inflation is too high, the public starts cutting down on spending, leading to a negative impact on the markets. And vice versa. Lower inflation leads to more purchasing power, more spending, more investments leading to a positive impact on the market. 2.Financial Supervisor For Financial System A financial system consists of financial markets (Capital market, money market, forex market etc.), financial institutions (banks, stock exchanges, NBFC etc) & financial assets (currencies, bills, bonds etc) RBI supervises this entire system and lays down the rules and regulations for it. It can also use further ‘Selective Credit Controls’ to regulate banks. 3.Issues of currency The RBI is responsible for the printing of currency notes. RBI is free to print as much as it wants as long as the minimum reserve of Rs 200 Cr (Gold 112 Cr) is maintained. The RBI has total assets or a balance size sheet of Rs. 51 trillion (April 2020). (1 Trillion = 1 Lakh crore) India’s current reserves mean our increase in currency circulation is well managed. 4.Manages Foreign Exchange RBI regulates all of India’s foreign exchange transactions. It is the custodian of all of foreign currencies in India. It allows for the foreign exchange value of the rupee to be controlled. RBI also buy and sell rupees in the foreign exchange market at its discretion. In case of any currency movement, a country’s central bank can directly intervene to either push the currency up, as India has been doing, or to keep it artificially low, as the Chinese central bank does. To push up a currency, a central bank can sell dollars, which is the global reserve currency, or the currency against which all others are measured. To push down a currency, a central bank can buy dollars. The RBI deciding this depends on the import/export and financial health of the country. Generally a weaker rupee means imports are more expensive, but are favourable for exports. And a stronger rupee means imports are cheaper but are unfavourable for exports. A weaker rupee can make foreign investment more lucrative driving up FII. A stronger rupee can have an adverse effect of FII investing in markets. 5.Banker’s Bank Every bank has to maintain a certain amount of reserve with the RBI. A certain percentage of a bank’s liabilities (anywhere between 3-15% as decided by RBI) has to be maintained in this account. This is called the Cash Reserve Ratio. This is determined by the MPC during the monetary policy review (which happens every six weeks at present). It lends money from this reserve to other banks if they are short on cash, but generally, it is seen as a last resort move. Banks are encouraged to meet their shortfalls of cash from other resources. 6.Banker to the government RBI is the entity that carries out ALL monetary transactions on behalf of the Government. It holds custody of the cash balance of the Government, gives temporary loans to both central and state governments and manages the debt operations of the central Government, through instruments of debt and the interest rates associated with them - like bonds. The different rates set & managed by RBI - Repo rate The rate at which RBI is willing to lend to commercial banks is called as Repo Rate. Banks sometimes need money for emergency or to maintain the SLR and CRR (explained below). They borrow this from RBI but have to pay some interest on it. The interest that is to be paid on the amount to the RBI is called as Repo Rate. It does not function like a normal loan but acts like a forward contract. Banks have to provide collateral like government bonds, T-bills etc. Repo means Repurchase Option is the true meaning of Repo an agreement where the bank promises to repurchase these government securities after the repo period is over. As a tool to control inflation, RBI increases the Repo Rate making it more expensive for banks to borrow from the RBI with a view to restrict availability of money. Exact opposite stance shall be taken in case of deflationary environment. The change of repo rate is aimed to affect the flow of money in the economy. An increase in repo rate decreases the flow of money in the economy, while the decrease in repo rate increases the flow of money in the economy. RBI by changing these rates shows its stance to the economy at large whether they prioritize growth or inflation. - Reverse Repo Rate The rate at which the RBI is willing to borrow from the Banks is called as Reverse Repo Rate. If the RBI increases the reverse repo rate, it means that the RBI is willing to offer lucrative interest rate to banks to park their money with the RBI. Banks in this case agree to resell government securities after reverse repo period. Generally, an increase in reverse repo rate that banks will have a higher incentive to park their money with RBI. It decreases liquidity, affecting the market in a negative manner. Decrease in reverse repo rate increases liquidity affecting the market in a positive manner. Both the repo rate and reverse repo rate fall under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility tools for RBI. - Cash reserve ratio (CRR) Banks in India are required to deposit a specific percentage of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) in the form of CASH with the RBI. This minimum ratio (that is the part of the total deposits to be held as cash) is stipulated by the RBI and is known as the CRR or Cash Reserve Ratio. These reserves will not be in circulation at any point in time. For example, if a bank had a NDTL (like current Account, Savings Account and Fixed Deposits) of 100Cr and the CRR is at 3%, it would have to keep 3Cr as Cash reserve ratio to the RBI. This amount earns no interest. Currently it is at 3%. A lower cash ratio means banks can deposit just a lower amount and use the remaining money leading to higher liquidity. This translates to more money to invest which is seen as positive for the market. Inversely, a higher cash ratio equates to lower liquidity which translates to a negative market sentiment. Thus, the RBI uses the CRR to control excess money flow and regulate liquidity in the economy. - Statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) Banks in India have to keep a certain percentage of their net demand and time liabilities WITH THEMSELVES. And this can be in the form of liquid assets like gold and government securities, not just cash. A lot of banks keep them in government bonds as they give a decent interest. The current SLR ratio of 18.25%, which means that for every Rs.100 deposited in a bank, it has to invest Rs.18.50 in any of the asset classes approved by RBI. A low SLR means higher levels of loans to the private sector. This boosts investment and acts as a positive sentiment for the market. Conversely a high SLR means tighter levels of credit and can cause a negative effect on the market. Essentially, the RBI uses the SLR to control ease of credit in the economy. It also ensures that the banks maintain a certain level of funds to meet depositor’s demands instead of over liquidation. - Bank Rate Bank rate is a rate at which the Reserve Bank of India provides the loan to commercial banks without keeping any security. There is no agreement on repurchase that will be drawn up or agreed upon with no collateral as well. This is different from repo rate as loans taken with repo rate are taken on the basis of securities. Bank rate hence is higher than the repo rate. Currently the bank rate is 4.25%. Since bank rate is essentially a loan interest rate like repo rate, it affects the market in similar ways. - Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate (MCLR) This is the minimum rate below which the banks are not allowed to lend. Raising this rate, makes loans more expensive, drying up liquidity, affecting the market in a negative way. Similarly, lower MCLR rates will bring in high liquidity, affecting the market in a positive way. MCLR is a varying lending rate instead of a single rate according to the kind of loans. Currently, the MCLR rate is between 6.65% - 7.15% - Marginal Standing facility Marginal Standing Facility is the interest rate at which a depository institution (generally banks) lends or borrows funds with another depository institution in the overnight market. Overnight market is the part of financial market which offers the shortest term loans. These loans have to be repaid the next day. MSF can be used by a bank after it exhausts its eligible security holdings for borrowing under other options like the Liquidity adjustment facilities. The MSF would be a penal rate for banks and the banks can borrow funds by pledging government securities within the limits of the statutory liquidity ratio. The current rate stands at 4.25%. The effect it has on the market is synonymous with the other lending rates such as repo rate & bank rate. - Loan to value ratio The loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is an assessment of lending risk that financial institutions and other lenders examine before approving a mortgage. Typically, loan assessments with high LTV ratios are considered higher risk loans. Basically, if a companies preferred form of collateral rises in value and leads the market (growing faster than the market), then the company will see the loans that it signed with higher LTV suddenly reduce (but the interest rate remains the same). Let’s consider an example of gold as a collateral. Consider a loan was approved with gold as collateral. The market price for gold is Rs 2000/g, and for each g, a loan of Rs 1500 was given. (The numbers are simplified for understanding). This would put LTV of the loan at 1500/2000 = 0.75. Since it is a substantial LTV, say the company priced the loan at 20% interest rate. Now the next year, the price of gold rose to Rs 3000/kg. This would mean that the LTV of the current loan has changed to 0.5 but the company is not obligated to change the interest rate. This means that even if the company sees a lot of defaults, it is fairly protected by the unexpected surge in the underlying asset. Moreover, since the underlying asset is more valuable, default rates for the loans goes down as people are more protective of the collateral they have placed. The same scenario for gold is happening right now and is the reason for gold backed loan providers like MUTHOOT to hit ATHs as gold is leading the economy right now. Also, these in these scenarios, it also enables companies to offer additional loan on same gold for those who are interested Instead of keeping the loan amount same most of the gold loan companies. Based on above, we can see that as RBI changes LTV for certain assets, we are in a position to identify potential institutions that could get a good Quarterly result and try to enter it early. Conclusion The above rates contain the ways in the Central Bank manages the monetary policy, growth and inflation in the country. Its impact on Stock market is often seen when these rates are changed, they act as triggers for the intraday positions on that day. But overall, the outlook is always maintained on how the RBI sees the country is doing, and knee jerk reactions are limited to intraday positions. The long term stance is always well within the limits of the outlook the big players in the market are expecting. The important thing to keep in mind is that the problems facing the economy needn’t be uni-dimensional. Problems with inflation, growth, liquidity, currency depreciation all can come together, for which the RBI will have to play a balancing role with all it powers to change these rates and the forex reserve. So the effect on the market needs to be given more thought than simply extrapolated as ‘rates go low, markets go up’. But understanding these individual effects of these rates allows you to start putting together the puzzle of how and where the market and the economy could go.
https://medium.com/@sergiygolubyev/crypto-exchange-trade-remember-psychology-6d4433569d9d Crypto Exchange is a high-tech platform in which all trade transactions are conducted using modern software created based on the latest IT solutions. The emergence of new types of currencies, in particular cryptocurrencies, gives a chance for the rapid development of the world economy as a whole. In turn, structural changes in the international economic system gave impetus to the emergence and development of new types of exchange technologies. Thus, crypto exchanges appeared which allowed its participants anywhere in the world to buy, sell and exchange one cryptocurrency for others, or for fiat of other countries. Each crypto exchange tries to offer customers convenient ways to convert financial instruments, and provides the ability to conduct transactions on its own terms. The high rates of development and distribution of cryptocurrencies, which are based on Blockchain, as well as the gradual wide recognition by the world community and leading economists, ensure the further improvement of exchange technologies. This means that in an effort to provide the most comfortable conditions for its customers, each crypto exchange will take them to an ever-higher quality level of service with innovative nuances. But at the same time, within the framework of the technological process of stock trading, which is available to users (from professional traders to amateurs), the question of psychology and its role in the decision making has not been canceled. Successful trading depends on 70% primarily on the psychology of a trader and only 30% on the trading scheme/strategy. Trading on the exchange, it is necessary to develop discipline, self-control and be able to respond quickly to changing stock charts. All this will allow you to earn and minimize your losses more effectively. Everyone should remember, from the amateur to the professional, that in the financial markets you can not only earn money, but also lose money. Cryptocurrency rates are still subject to political and regulatory influences; their value is influenced by the reputation of the company's founders, informational insertions about blockchain projects and plans for their further development, scandals and disclosures. Nevertheless, there are simple rules for successful trading from the field of psychology, which will reduce the risks when trying to make money on cryptocurrency and not only. There are a number of problems that always hinder every beginner - amateur: · Excitement · Fear · Greed · Unwillingness to learn new things · Imaginary visualization of results All these problems have psychological aspects. Emotions, feelings and desires significantly influence the trading decisions made by the trader. This happens all the time, not only on traditional exchanges, but also in the cryptocurrency sphere as well. Excitement is an emotional state when it seems to a person that he is lucky, and as the series of successful transactions continues, he performs larger by volume financial transactions. Often, the excitement motivates to turn away from long-term transactions and trends, and look towards short-term operations. After all, it seems that the more often you successfully complete operations, the more capital you earn. Not at all! The more often you make mistakes, leading to a default on your account. Money only is earned on long-term trends and operations. Traders are often worried, fearing an unsuccessful deal closing. Of course, a loss is bad, but sometimes it is better to close a position in minus than to lose a large amount only because of the hope of a quick price reversal. Therefore, fear often pushes for the wrong strategic decisions. Fear of loss as a result becomes a sentence for your positioning in profit. On the same face with fear, if not strange, is the factor of greed. Having essentially a different source of inspiration, greed, like fear, leads to a generally pitiable result — to the default of your trading account. The reluctance to learn new strategies, technologies, and denial of forecasting also leads to failure. Successful is who always strives to learn new things, and perceives the fact and necessity of continuous learning. Since learning is a process of striving for the progress of its results and professional qualities. Another scourge - Wish list or visualization. Everyone wants to see the price move in the right direction. This is pretty dangerous. By visualizing the price jump in the right direction, you can dream and invest too much in cryptocurrency. This will lead to losses. Here you should always remember to diversify your investments. Remember your psychological portrait even when you program your trading strategies, algorithms and bots. After all, your algorithm is essentially your psychological portrait. Finally, the above-mentioned flaws, especially in the strategy can dominate and damage your deposit and reputation. The main signs of competent crypto-trade are the same as on other exchanges (such as FOREX). This is a kind of algorithm for a sustainable profit strategy: · Risk no more than 10% of the deposit · Use risk per trade of 5% or less · Do not close profitable deals too early · Do not accumulate losing trades · Fix quick speculative profit · Respect the trend · Pay more attention to liquid assets (cryptocurrency) · Set your personal entry and exit rules for trades and stick to them · Long-term trading strategy gives you maximum steady profits · Do not use the principles of Martingale tactics if there is no experience. You cannot double the volume of the transaction, if it closed in the red zone. If a loss was incurred, then the cryptocurrency market situation was predicted incorrectly and it was necessary to work on improving the analytical skills, and not to conclude a larger deal, which probably also closes in the negative It is obvious that the psychology of trading significantly affects the performance of stock speculation both in the traditional market and in the field of cryptocurrency. It is important to remember that the success of a person in any field of activity depends on the emotional component, namely the internal balance. Exchange trading is a nervous activity, and if you do not learn to take emotions under control, the results can be disastrous. The basis for achieving success in stock trading, in my opinion, are two fundamental factors. The first factor relates to the field of formulation of the trading idea, and the second - to the area of its implementation. To formulate a trading idea, on the one hand, methods of technical and fundamental analysis are used to select an exchange instrument and determine the moment of opening and closing a position on it. On the other hand, capital management methods are used to determine the optimal size of the position being opened. As you know, without these two crucial moments it is impossible to achieve stable success in stock trading. As experience shows, for the most part, people have enough intelligence to master all the necessary theoretical knowledge of technical and fundamental analysis in a few months of intensive training. There are no special intellectual difficulties. But, as the same experience shows, this is clearly not enough for successful exchange trading, since all knowledge may turn out to be a useless load if the second success factor is not sufficiently present - the practical implementation of trading ideas, which is no longer based on the intellectual sphere, and psycho-emotional. It is within this area that the main problem arises for many traders, which prevents the receipt of stable profits. As a rule, this is due to the psycho-emotional profile of a person. It depends on how the trader will behave in the psychologically stressful situations that the exchange trading is full of. Inherent in all human emotions and feelings - fear, greed, excitement, envy, hope, etc. very often have a decisive influence on the behavior of traders, not allowing them to follow strictly the trading strategy and plan, even if they have one. From a psychological point of view, the process of stock exchange activity can be divided into stages, after which the trader can return to the starting point. The above scenarios and risk factors are one of the options for the behavior of an exchange speculator; however, it often happens exactly the opposite. Having suffered losses from his first transactions in the market, the trader loses interest in exchange trading, he gives up and he falls into despair. In this case, the first step to victory is the admission of defeat. It would seem silly and ridiculous, but it works. After that, there are two options: either the trader leaves the exchange forever, or returns to the battlefield. Such “returns” may occur more than once. In addition, at some other time, after repeated analysis of his actions, mistakes made and their consequences, a person from a beginner begins to turn into an experienced trader, which is marked by the stability of his activity and, perhaps, by slow, but surely growth of his deposit and profit. The psychological basis for success in trading, which leads to victory and the absence of which is equivalent to defeat, are as follows: · It is not only the lack of self-control, discipline and focus on the process that causes the defeat · Self-control, discipline and ability to concentrate is not enough to achieve success · To achieve success, it is equally important to be able to adapt to changes In principle, one can consider the idea that traditional approaches to the psychology of trading are limited. In the majority of benefits for traders, the key qualities necessary for successful exchange trading are only self-control and discipline. Of course, these qualities are necessary in any field of business activities. Trading is not an exception, especially considering that it is in the risk zone. But self-control and discipline are not enough to achieve success. Trading is a business. Moreover, any business does not stand still. You cannot find a formula for success and use it forever. You will need to monitor trends and constantly look for new successful solutions. The main feature of a successful trader is adaptability to changes. The lack of development leads to defeat, large monetary losses. Many technology companies continued to produce stationary computers when laptops became popular. The same companies continued to produce laptops when tablets appeared and became popular. The products of these companies were of high quality, and their employees organized pre-set tasks in an organized manner. But they lost large sums due to the fact that they could not adapt to changes in demand. If we draw a parallel with the sphere of investment, the similarities will become noticeable. The stock market, like any other subject to change. One period is replaced by another. Those methods that allowed achieving success in the previous period can lead to failure in the current. The key concept in stock trading is volatility. The change in this indicates the onset of a new period. When volatility increases, trade becomes more risky. Accordingly, with a decrease in this indicator, the degree of risk during trading operations decreases. With a high level of volatility, trends most often unfold. Strong and weak positions can be swapped out. With a high level of volatility, trends continue for some time. From the foregoing, it should be concluded that market processes and methods during periods of high and low volatility differ strongly. You cannot use the same methods during changing market trends. Often it is the adherence to the previous methods, excessive discipline leads to collapse as well. The fact that the investor was defeated does not mean that he suddenly became morally unstable, unorganized. Trading is trading. Therefore, we have every right to assert that under the psychology of trade in the markets is meant human preparedness for the risks that inevitably accompany any activity. Trading on the stock exchange is based on the interaction of the three most important components: capital management, analysis, and the psychology of trading (which cannot be considered in conjunction with the other aspects of trading). The psychology of human behavior is a source for understanding what is happening in financial markets. The source for understanding the events occurring in the financial markets and the behavior of traders during exchange trading is the psychology of the human person. Emotions — greed, fear, doubt, hope, a sense of self-preservation — are peculiar to any person in life — are clearly manifested in the hard rhythm of decision-making during the dynamic course of exchange trading (which was partially considered above). Knowledge of the human psychology and their behavioral characteristics must be used to achieve success. The psychology of a trader is formed from a multitude of grains - it is a belief in what one does in the stock market, in one’s actions, in own system of one’s decisions, in trading method. In addition, the psychology of a trader is that one can unload oneself emotionally, one does not accept the intellectual challenge that the stock market carries. On the contrary, becomes restrained, calm when making decisions on operations in the stock market. There are many situations where a trader expresses his attention and focus; he does not disperse it on the tracking of news factors or on the receipt of stimuli from the news agencies. Consequently, the crowd psychology is the factor that makes prices move, therefore, in addition to assessing one's own psychological state, one must be sensitive to changes in the mood of other market participants, move in the flow, not against it, and then success will not take long. Of course, you can argue that why do I need this psychology? After all, besides creating your own strategies and individual work, some exchanges (including crypto exchanges) allow minimizing risks by following the strategies of experienced traders; this service is called a PAMM account. PAMM provides an opportunity for clients (Subscribers) to follow the trading strategy of experienced and professional traders (Providers). Provider's trading results are publicly available. With the help of the rating of accounts, graphs of profitability and reviews of other traders, you can choose the most suitable Provider and begin to follow his strategy. Again, in this case, the provider is a human with all the ensuing consequences. And psychological aspects are not foreign to professionals as well, including victories and mistakes. The financial market attracts people the possibility of obtaining independence, including financial. A successful trader can live and work in any country in the world without having either a boss or subordinates. The motivation of people on the exchanges can be different: from getting a higher percentage than from a bank to making several thousand dollars a day. At the same time, there are two main categories of people in the financial market (including cryptocurrencies): investors who acquire assets or currency for a relatively long period, and speculators who profit from changes in the prices of certain assets for short periods. Many believe, an easy way to make money is not for everybody. First, the skillful use and manipulation of the psychological aspects of a human make it possible to become a speculator. And this, of course, in addition to knowledge and analytical skills. Experience shows that successful speculation is the right state of mind. It would seem that this is the simplest thing that can be acquired by human. But in fact, this self-tuning is available to very few. It is also necessary to distinguish the psychology of the market and the personal psychology of the trader. The behavior of the market as a whole depends on people, since it is the stock market crowd that determines its direction. However, quite often traders lose sight of the most important component of victory - managing their personal emotions, that is, their psychology. Without control over oneself, there can be no control over one’s trading capital. If a trader is not tuned to the trend range of the stock crowd, if he does not pay attention to changes in her psychology, then he will also not achieve significant success in trading. To succeed on the exchange, one needs to take a sober look at exchange trading, recognize its trends and their changes, and not waste time on dreams or lamenting about failures. Any price of a financial instrument is a momentary agreement on its value, reached by a market crowd and expressed in the fact of a transaction, i.e. it is the equilibrium point between the players for a rise and a fall, or the "equilibrium" price. Crowds of traders create asset prices: buyers, sellers and fluctuating market watchers. Charts of prices and trading volumes reflect the psychology of the exchange. In addition, this is always worth remembering! After all, the main purpose of the presence of the analysis of psychology in stock trading is not the quantity, but the quality of transactions. A person striving to become a good trader needs to remember the words of DiNapoli, a well-known stock exchange trader: “The most important trading tool is not a computer, not a service for supplying information, or even methods developed by a trader. It is he himself! If a trader is not suitable for this - he should not trade at all”! Therefore, before pushing orders on the trading platform, think about whether you are suitable for this role. Join chat — https://t.me/joinchat/AAAAAE84vCXg5PK-VpHADg Sergiy Golubyev (СергейГолубев) EU structural funds, ICO projects, NGO & investment projects, project management, comprehensive support of business
Our most recent AMA with CEO William Heyn discussing key topics, including his experiences and vision, FX Trading and more!
AMA with CEO William Heyn “Good Morning fellow, TIOnauts, Bill here, getting ready to answer your questions in the upcoming AMA I wanted to get an early start by addressing one big question we have been getting. It is always a bit unsettling when a big name leaves a company's board, we understand. However, please remember, there is a lot more to being on a corporate board than just advising a company on its business path. There are meetings, board votes, board minutes and so on, all of the things that the public doesn't see that directors do - and spend a lot of time on. But let's be honest about what you all want from a big player like Chien, you want him to be involved in advising the company and helping us move forward and grow, right? Do you care if he is going to cast a vote to second the board motion to approve the minutes from the last board meeting? So as we have said, Chien is going to stay involved as an advisor, he is just letting go on some of the more mundane aspects of being a board member. As most of you know, Chien is a rock star and we are lucky to have had him on the board for the last year, now he is going to spend some of his time on other things - most importantly Forbes Crypto, which directly benefits trade.io - but he is still going to be involved in the strategic direction of the company.” Q. how much trade.io own from Forbes?A. Hi Pacimaker, got it, thanks for the question, so all I can say is that it is a meaningful amount - beyond that I am not at liberty to say Q. Bill what are your thoughts on both trade.io for 2019 & the crypto market in general?A. Thanks for the question CB, so I mentioned in my first letter that I am a market optimist, I feel that crypto in general will find its natural bottom and come back. As for trade.io, we are looking forward to a great year with lots of things to develop and improve Q. What are the changes in the company strategy with the recent changes in trade.io management and the crypto market as well?A. I don't think that we have changed a lot in the company strategy, we just have some new faces to help move the company forward as we see best Q. Why do much dump? Just because of Chien Lee?A. You got me Ironfist - I don't know why anyone would be dumping - it sure wasn't me Q As trade.io is into many initiatives it is good to know how much already spent and how much they have reserves. A. Agreed and understood, please keep faith, we are committed to transparency and openness, we are in good shape for now, but some things we need to keep a little quiet on - so no exact number just yet Q. Hope it won't seem too negative but I'm wondering if in the future the company will try more to consider the optics of moving around the big names. Maybe the news that Mr Presissler was stepping down could have been done at the same time as this latest announcement to get it all over with instead of pulling off the band-aid much slower. A. Thanks for the question, so you are completely right, optics are important, and I think you will believe me when I say if there was a way for it to be less painful we would have found it but in these cases we need to be transparent - so for example, waiting a significant amount of time after I took over just to make it one announcement with Chien wouldn't have been responsible. Krisoffer added “Thanks guys, I appreciate the answer. But as you know, a lot of people might just see the headlines and make decisions based on that, that was my concern. But thank you!” Bill “Agreed Kristoffer, but we need to balance being as transparent as possible with what is easy, right?” Jim P added: “Agreed, but we are still working closely with Bill. We are in constant communication.” Q. Who do you think is the most difficult thing to be done now?A. So, I'm not sure my fingers would take the typing of the full list here, lots to be done, but in general, I look at it like this, trade.io is growing up, companies go through stages and we are entering a new one, we have grown so fast and done so many great things we need to take stock now and see what is working and what is not going exactly as planned and then adjust - very typical for a company of this stage Q. Is the Forex platform planned before the end of this year? A. That is planned for Q1 2019 Q. Bill, what was your previous experience in the management of startups like trade.io? You look like to me like a SP500 guy.....that’s the reason of my question. A. I'm not ashamed to admit were talking about my favorite subject now (me) - So Carlos, boiling it down to the most relevant, I left Merrill Lynch in 2001 after working there and at JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley and founded my own investment bank, just me and a computer. I have built that up over the last 17 years into a full service registered investment bank - so I have done lots of other startups in the past but I think that is most relevant Q. So u are better than Jim? A. Pacimaker - Jim and I have been friends for nearly 30 years... you trying to break that up? Kidding aside, Pacimaker, Jim and I have worked together for almost 20 years now Q. How are things going to be any different with you as CEO as opposed to Jim? A. We have different skill sets and have always used them in conjunction with each other on projects, just like now. Between the two of us, Jim is an idea and inception guy, he is brilliant with coming up with new ideas, launching them and getting them through their first stages. I am more of the second stage development guy. Once the company is up and running that's where I can add value. I'll admit, not nearly as exciting as what Jim does but we feel what trade.io needs at this stage. Q. Do you think at some time trade.io will focus also on Advertise itself on communities whose tokens are listed here? Ex: OMG, BAT etc.... I personally asked this in their TG group and they seemed neither aware that we are listing their tokens. A. So many of these tokens are already listed on other exchanges, we are working to differentiate ourselves by offering more product, the LP, FX trading etc., we need to get these up and running first Q. Okay the exchange is getting pretty damn good, now I feel like it’s time to be innovative like setting up a "crypto/forex university" where folks are drawn to and can learn and communicate and plan the future together, is there a timetable for the "learn platform"? And what are your main marketing strategies? A. Something like this? Preview Preview Q. Is this accessible somewhere already? A. No we are still developing it. It's in the pipeline and I didn't want to share until it was further along (within a few weeks of deployment) but I figured since you asked now is as just a good of time as any. Q. Where u can see trade.io in next 3 months? A. So three months, you have seen all of the timelines and things we are planning to roll out so I won’t repeat them - but more importantly within three months we will have taken stock of the company - like I have said, what is going well, what, if anything isn't and we will hopefully have fixed or being on the way to fixing everything that we can. Q. Why did you take this challenge? A. Got it, thanks Carlos, I love challenges, so that's easy, this is what I like to do, help build new companies, so this challenge is right up my alley. Why this one as opposed to others? I genuinely believe that DLT is going to upend the finance world that I have been a part of for decades, I want to be a part of that Q. Good morning Bill. I think one pressing question on everyone's mind, is the state of finances of the company. We see not much trading going on, so obviously no revenue there, and we don’t have any idea of the other areas making profit... The bear market can be long and drawn out, and those companies that can weather the storm, will prosper obviously. Question is straightforward.... do you feel comfortable that trade.io is in a position to continue operating for 6 more months under current conditions? A. Hi Dustin, good morning, and thanks for the question. Easy answer is yes, I'm comfortable that we are good to go for 6 months and beyond, the bear market is rough on all of us but our reserves are just fine. But this is always something we focus on, every day making sure that we are keeping operations running Q. One other thing I know everyone wants an explanation of: is how the liquidity providers work on the exchange. We see lots of small trades by bots that appear as wash trading, which is one thing trade.io has always been against.. Can you give a brief explanation of how that works? A. Sure, very briefly, as you know the market markers are there to create liquidity and orderly markets - just like the old time guys on the floor of the NYSE, right? So while it may look like a wash, it should only be liquidity and matching - keeping the market moving. That's the market theory, if you want more of the technical aspects of how they work I might have to leave that for our tech guys Q. Great... I know it is a major question for everyone, and to understand how that works would be a great help A. From Jim P market makers are there to create an orderly market, and provide a minimal level of liquidity. That’s what ours are doing. We are not manipulating the tape, fake buy walls or sell walls, spoofing, or inflating with millions of fake volume like many others. Q. Bill Do you think the future is the STO’s? A. So the STO question is a good one, and really boils down to all of the regulatory issues out there, as the markets have changed and regulations have been maturing I do think that STO's will be part of the path forward - basically between the ICO and the traditional IPO, but there is a lot of evaluation left to do and regulations are changing Thank you all, I do have to run, it has been a pleasure talking with you all this morning (for me), I look forward to working with you all going forward Q. Do we have any bombastic announcements to the short and mid terms??? A) We always may have some surprises, but for now we’re focused on executing the initiatives outlined in https://howsitcoming.trade.io in a timely manner. Q: According to Jim Preissler, trade.io had plans to dual-list traditional stocks on our exchange at some point in the future. There isnt much talk about it anymore. Is that something that we could expect next year? A) Yes, the goal has always been having a multi-asset platform; we are still hopeful that we will have this running in 2019, but do not have a specific timeline yet. Q: What coins will be available for depositing on FX platform of trade.io in first time? A) Ethereum, Bitcoin, TIOx with reduced commissions for TIOx users. Q: When will fiat be available for depositing on FX platform? A) Targeting early Q1 2019 Q: Why hasn't the company endorsed and advertised trade.io into communities of the Tokens that we are listing (BAT, OMG etc...)? Thx A) There is no specific reason, and I agree we need to do a better job of doing this going forward, as it gains more exposure to to trade.io and TIOx. Q: Hi Mr. William Heyn. May I know when does the "Stop Limit" function to be added into our platform? As a trader, I believe that becoming more important as trading in the downtrend market now. A) Targeting Q1 2019 Q: Will the launch of forex be a beta or Full version? A) We’re expecting full version, with standalone FX sites to be up in early Q1 2019. Q. Will trade.io become dex in the future? A) Possibly, but its not on our timeline at this point. Q. What do you think of the idea to take another fast token as the base like XRP or maybe even something like nano? That would still be pretty unique… A) Something we are considering. Q. When we can use TIOx to get discount when we trade( same like BNB)? A) TIOx is used for the LIquidity Pool, and can be used on the FX platform, once released, for discounted commissions. Q. Any news about that stores where TIOx should be implement this year? A) We will be starting with our NEST shared workspaces where TIOx can be used for payment and significant discounts. Q. What is the reason trade.io list so hard ERC- 20? A) We’re starting to ramp up roll outs of tokens, as you witnessed last week, we added 4 new ERC-20’s including a stable coin. New chains are on the horizon, as well, as can be seen in our timeline. Q. My question is related to trading competitions. Lastly we added MITH token but at the same time Binance added the same with trading competition. Then how new traders will be attracted towards trade.io? Not a single trading competition since exchange launch! A) I’ve already spoken to the team about the trading competition and agree its needed, and have given them directives to launch a trading competition in Q1 of 2019. Q. December-Q1 sounds like an amazing month with lots of good stuff, but do you have a rough time-frame for when the exchange will be able to accept fiat? That's a feature I'm really looking forward to. A) Q1 as well, as you noted there is a lot that I have the team working on, with tight timelines, as I want to see progress in a fairly short amount of time. Q. But what is not fair is they are using the API is open to these and not to the other traders? These are trade.io or third party partners? A) API will be open for everyone, very, very shortly.
Right now segwit2x (BT2) is trading for $1143 and segwit1x (BT1) is $3070 on Bitfinex futures markets. Even with not the greatest terms, you would expect 2x to be much higher. I believe this bodes well for BCC. (61 points, 112 comments)
The other day people were suggesting we do an EDA change before the November 2x fork. Here is why I think that is a terrible idea, and why we should only consider EDA change AFTER the 2x fork. (58 points, 40 comments)
While /bitcoin was circle-jerking to the idea that no exchange would list the SW2x chain as BTC, Bitcoin Thailand's comment to the contrary was removed from the very same thread! (228 points, 70 comments)
By proving that it can be done (getting rid of Core) this will set a HUUGE precedent and milestone that dev teams and even outright censorship cannot overtake Bitcoin. That will be an extremely bullish occasionfor all crypto. (149 points, 84 comments)
The goal of all the forks appears to be to dilute investment in the true forks: Bitcoin Cash and Segwit2x. A sort of Scorched Earth approach by Blockstream. They are going to try to tear down Bitcoin as they get removed. (35 points, 11 comments)
In light of all these upcoming forks, we need a site where you can put in a BTC address and it checks ALL the forks and says which chains still have a balance for that address. This way you can split your coins and send coins carefully. (6 points, 6 comments)
Can we take a moment to appreciate Jeff Garzik for how much bullshit he has to deal with while working to give BTC a long-needed upgrade that Core has been blocking for so long? (278 points, 193 comments)
Everyone should calm down. The upgrade to 2x has 95%+ miner support and will be as smooth as a hot knife through butter. Anyone that says otherwise is fear monguring or listening to bitcoin propaganda. (364 points, 292 comments)
Notice: Redditor for 3-4 months accounts or accounts that do not have a history of Bitcoin posts are probably the same person or just a few people paid to manipulate discussion here. It's likely a paid astroturfing campaign. (38 points, 30 comments)
The latest TED Radio Hour titled “Getting Organized” talks about the decentralized algorithms of ants and how centralization is not the most ideal state of an organization. (2 points, 0 comments)
BCC Miners, two EDAs have locked in. This will reduce mining difficulty to 64.00%. If you are aiming to achieve profit parity, you should start mining after the next EDA (in 2.5 hours), because then the difficulty will be at 51%, which gives profit parity on both chains and steady block rate. (9 points, 14 comments)
Antpool, Viabtc, Bitcoin.com, BTC.com, we need to hear your voice. In the case of a scheduled hardfork for updating the EDA, will your pool follow? (6 points, 18 comments)
Fact: proof of work which is the foundation of bitcoin and not invented by Adam back was designed to counter attacks where one person falsely represents to be many(like spam). Subreddits and twitter dont form the foundation of bitcoin for a reason. (156 points, 27 comments)
I'm a small blocker and I support the NYA (87 points, 46 comments)
Devs find clever way to add replay protection that doesn't change transaction format which would break software compatibility and cause disruption. G. Max responds by saying that this blacklisting is a sign of things to come. (49 points, 57 comments)
Five ways small blocks (AKA core1mb) hurt decentralization (36 points, 4 comments)
Even if bitcoins only use to society was avoiding negative interest rates, bail-ins + bail-outs, that is incredibly useful to society. Of course a banker like Jamie Dimon would call something a fraud that removes a "bank tax" on society by allowing them to avoid these fraudulent charges. (18 points, 0 comments)
There are different kinds of censorship. The core propagandists are unwittingly great advocates of economic censorship (2 points, 1 comment)
Everyone should calm down. The upgrade to 2x has 95%+ miner support and will be as smooth as a hot knife through butter. Anyone that says otherwise is fear monguring or listening to bitcoin propaganda. by Annapurna317 (364 points, 292 comments)
message meant to prevent humanity's destruction and to speed its evolution.
The following is a message meant to prevent humanity's destruction and to speed its evolution. Every War since the beginning of time has been over land or resources. World War 2 was an absolute brutal and ugly display of humanity, with nearly 4% of the world population dying. Once the nuclear bomb was detonated the stakes became even higher, and the people in power's main job was to prevent global conflict from breaking out. The US's military might was this groups way of maintaining global order with 1 tool being their maintence of the dollar as a reserve currency. This Bretton Woods system was deflationary in nature, but everyone could be in agreement with a very strong peg to gold, and effectively a true gold backing that was only redeemed by foreign governments and central banks. In 1971 the US effectively went bankrupt closing the redeemability of dollars into gold, attempting to fund the Vietnam war. After the closing of the gold window maintence of the dollar as a reserve currency required much more coercion. There was an oil Embargo in 1973. Inflation roared. The medling into political affairs of nations to ensure that oil and other commodities were purchased with paper us dollars that no longer had any backing, created a lot of resentment and ill will towards the US which ultimately evolved into Islamic Extremism. Today the dollar is still the reserve currency of the world, and despite all the negative associated with it, there are no realistic alternatives. With the well structured bond market, highly regulated stock market, clearly outlined forward guidance of the central banks money printing, and extremely liquid forex markets, as well as the largest economy, all the other alternatives are merely inferior fiat currencies themselves. However, with all the technological advances, and growth of the economy, we are still working harder than ever. We see the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. What is the real reason behind this? Ultimately, what inflation does, is over time it transfers wealth from the working class, to the assett owning class. Deflation can be equally problematic for humanity as well. With a gold backing, it inherently causes deflation over time. This effecively slows down the velocty of money, and artifically restricts economic activity. To fully back currency today with gold would effectively send the price of gold soaring, and the market would tell humanity to specifically search for a lot more gold. This is a commodity that by its very nature, humanity digs up out of the ground, only to be stored and put back right into the ground without creating any real benefit to humanity in terms of additional goods, services, or more efficient means of production. The largest source of money getting printed out of thin air is government debt, which is now a global standard for the way countries and central banks operate. When the government has to borrow large sums of money to continue operating, the central bank can facilitate this instantly, but the purchasing power of all the other dollars in existence truly depreciates. This transfer of wealth then effectively gets moved into an entity that can then be heavily influenced on where to spend that money by special interests who exagerate or manufacture problems to influence what problems governments need to fix, and ultimately enriches themselves in the process. Sure, there are social programs that provide assistance, but the amount of money spend on war in comparison to the amount spent on social programs is in great imbalance. And that amount spent on war greatly enriches all the companies that supply those weapons and war time services, incentivising them to exaggerate and manufacturer threats. This all begs the question, what is the solution? The US, being in the best position to execute, would effectively create a new dollar. They would take their gold reserve, and back a certain percentage of the new currency with this. The second biggest % would be of oil as well. Now as it stands, the US strategic oil reserve is holding roughly 30 Billion approximately 600 million barrels. This would need to be drastically expanded. However, this is the single most cost effective method to preserve national security in the US, where 600B was spent in 2015 on the military. A tax would also need to be imposed on oil to subsidize alternative energy and climate research. The rest of the reserve would be a combination of copper, silver, palladium, platinum, steel, alluminum, and other commodities.The greater the variety of commodities incorporated, the more the inflationary effects will be spread out. Ultimately every country would adopt the same system with a basket of commodities tailored to their countries natural reserves and competitive advantages. A percentage of this new currency would also be foreign currency holdings to facilitate liquid exchange between currencies. What would happen, is a baseline could be established of commodities prices. If the market price of 1 of the underlying commodities rise, then the commodity could be sold into the market to dampen the price rise, and if a commodity fell, then new dollars could be printed to buy into and dampen the drop, effectively smoothing out any short term supply demand imbalances without taking the money out of the marketplace for expensive yaughts and houses. The amount of new dollars that could be created would be limited by the set percentage of commodities that a single unit would be redeemable for. These set percentages could have a little wiggle room to account for all the transactions going in and out each day, but would serve as a hard limit. This would also keep US commodities producers in business, and would create an environment where more human energy was spent on gathering resources. Once the resources have been stock piled, those resources would be used to build and construct things creating economic activity. This would create a perpetual cycle of production and abundance. It would at first simply be a stable currency that everyone would want to willingly adopt as the standard medium of global trade. Then the economic utopia created in the US will serve as a model for the rest of the world to want to willingly adopt. This would effectively smooth out markets, and remove speculators who simply skim off the top without actually contributing anything to society. Boom and bust cycles would not be exaccerbated in the manner in which they are now. There would still be a federal reserve system that would act as a central bank to coordinate interest rates, set reserve requirements, and be a lender of last resort. The key difference would be that they could not simply print new federal reserve notes out of thin air to bail out governments or bailout the banking system as a whole. They could only deposit and take deposits of CASH. There would need to be an orderly mechanism for all banks to fail where the depositors are first in line for all assets, and shareholders are last in line. There also would need to be coordination to ensure that asset prices do not spiral down, unneccesarily destroying the banking system whose health is determined by the underlying asset values of the loans it holds. However, what needs to cease immediately is the perpetual printing of money, to continue increasing asset values, in an effort to print their way out of massive debt. This is where the transfer of wealth occurs from the working class, to the assett owning class. Governments then step in to try to fill in the gaps with social programs, but there is massive waste that occurs from the simple government redistribution of wealth back, and it never keeps up with the initial theft. Hence why we are working harder than ever despite all the technological and social progress that has been made. So essentially the new monetary authority has the sole ability to print new money by direct purchases into commodities markets. Now all existing federal reserve notes will be pegged 1 to 1 in value with the new dollar. Both dollars would always be valid for all debts public and private. However, no new federal reserve notes could be created, only the new dollar when an equivalent amount of the right commodities is brought to the entity that maintains the integrity of the new dollar. Individuals, foreign governments, and everyone in between would always have the right to redeem the underlying ratio of commodities on demand, and anyone could have a dollar created that brought the set ratio of underlying commodities to the same entity. This mechanism would be the only way in which new money would be created. This would completely change humanity from a consumption based economy to a production based economy. At the end of the day, the central bank would work in conjunction with the new monetary authority to maintain price stability as the ONLY goal. One problem that arises is the fact that all recipients of loans, including the US government, took out loans with the assumption that future dollars would be less valuable then current dollars. If future loans have to be paid back with dollars worth the same as current dollars and not less, this effectively increases the price of all loans beyond what people agreed to when they took out the loans. Since the Feds stated target inflation rate is 3%, every year that inflation is less, all loans should technically have the interest rate or principal revised lower, because they are being paid back with less inflated, more expensive dollars. However, the initial inflationary effect of simple implementation of this system also has to be factored in that would in affect counteract this to a large degree. This would lead to a global abundance with very little unemployment and large scale coordination of resources. There would be equitable distribution of resources amongst all classes. Every person would become a net producer instead of a net consumer by leveraging technology and economies of scale for production and organization. There would be great people doing great things uninhibited, which would inspire others to do great things, which pushes all of humanity forward. The military would shift focus to simple defense of the resource storage facilities, but would gradually be reduced as humanity comes further and futher together. To obtain ever more resources to fuel our growth, we would simply expand into outer space. Its this shift to abundance that leads to humanity essentially ascending, which simply means colonization of space. Once humanity reaches this point, they will be welcomed into the amalgamation. -The Amalgamation
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